Primorje 1–0 Tolmin: Result & Stats | 2. SNL

Primorje

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Tolmin

8/29/2023

2. SNL · Round 2Nogometni stadion Ajdovščina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Primorje57%

×Draw23%

Tolmin20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PrimorjeExpected goals in this matchTolmin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.82

0.99

Primorje

1.82

Tolmin

0.99

Primorje creates 84% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 30 away

1.75

creates per match

0.83

1.16

allows per match

1.90

creates per match

Primorje

1.75

Tolmin

0.83

allows per match

Primorje

1.16

Tolmin

1.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Primorje+0.00on par

Tolmin+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Primorje ↓

Tolmin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Primorje or draw

80%

Primorje or Tolmin

77%

Draw or Tolmin

43%

Winning margin

Primorje wins by 2+

32%

Tolmin wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Primorje 1+ goals

84%

Primorje 2+ goals

54%

Primorje 3+ goals

27%

Tolmin 1+ goals

63%

Tolmin 2+ goals

26%

Tolmin 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Primorje (draw refunded)

74%

Tolmin (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Primorje at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.16 · 56 matches

Tolmin away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.90 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Primorje attack 1.75 + Tolmin defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.82

Tolmin attack 0.83 + Primorje defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Primorje scores more

57%

level

23%

Tolmin scores more

20%

Primorje at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Primorje will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff