Primorje 2–0 Rogaška: Result & Stats | 2. SNL

Primorje

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Rogaška

R. Šolaja 70'

B. Bobarič 60'

7/31/2021

2. SNL · Round 1Nogometni stadion Ajdovščina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Primorje48%

×Draw24%

Rogaška28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PrimorjeExpected goals in this matchRogaška

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.24

Primorje

1.69

Rogaška

1.24

Primorje creates 36% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 41 away

1.75

creates per match

1.32

1.16

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Primorje

1.75

Rogaška

1.32

allows per match

Primorje

1.16

Rogaška

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Primorje+0.00on par

Rogaška+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Primorje ↓

Rogaška →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Primorje or draw

72%

Primorje or Rogaška

76%

Draw or Rogaška

52%

Winning margin

Primorje wins by 2+

25%

Rogaška wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Primorje 1+ goals

82%

Primorje 2+ goals

50%

Primorje 3+ goals

24%

Rogaška 1+ goals

71%

Rogaška 2+ goals

35%

Rogaška 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Primorje (draw refunded)

63%

Rogaška (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Primorje at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.16 · 56 matches

Rogaška away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.63 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Primorje attack 1.75 + Rogaška defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.69

Rogaška attack 1.32 + Primorje defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Primorje scores more

48%

level

24%

Rogaška scores more

28%

Primorje at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Primorje will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

F. Perko← M. Škarabot

58'

M. Zavnik← R. Bužinel

58'

R. Šolaja← J. Kodermac

60'

70'

75'

80'

Primorje

Rogaška

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: B. Lučić

12'▲F. Perko←▼M. Škarabot

58'▲M. Zavnik←▼R. Bužinel

58'▲R. Šolaja←▼J. Kodermac

80'▲A. Kuraj←▼B. Bobarič

Primorje substitutes

PerkoZavnikŠolajaKurajKarabegovićTerzievBužan

Manager: F. Fridl

75'▲T. Gobec←▼A. Neskič

Rogaška substitutes

GobecZdovcVunderlLamprehtDebelak