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Primorje vs Nafta — 1. SNL 2026

Primorje
Primorje
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Nafta
Nafta
10/26/20241. SNL1. SNL · Round 13Športni Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Primorje47%
×Draw26%
Nafta27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Primorje
1.49
Nafta
1.06

Primorje creates 41% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 19 away

creates per match

Primorje
1.14
Nafta
0.53

allows per match

Primorje
1.58
Nafta
1.84

finishing

Primorje+0.00on par
Nafta+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Primorje ↓

Nafta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Primorje or draw
73%
Primorje or Nafta
74%
Draw or Nafta
53%

Winning margin

Primorje wins by 2+
23%
Nafta wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Primorje 1+ goals
77%
Primorje 2+ goals
44%
Primorje 3+ goals
19%
Nafta 1+ goals
65%
Nafta 2+ goals
29%
Nafta 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Primorje (draw refunded)
64%
Nafta (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Primorje at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.58 · 36 matches

Nafta away — creates 0.53, concedes 1.84 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Primorje attack 1.14 + Nafta defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.49

Nafta attack 0.53 + Primorje defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Primorje scores more
47%
level
26%
Nafta scores more
27%

Primorje at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Primorje will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Primorje vs Nafta

Primorje and Nafta drew 1-1 in 1. SNL on October 26, 2024.

The match was played at Športni Park in Nova Gorica.