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Primorje vs HNK Gorica — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Primorje
Primorje
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
HNK Gorica
HNK Gorica
D. Babin 90' (pen)
A. Erceg 13'
1/12/2025Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Primorje29%
×Draw24%
HNK Gorica47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Primorje
1.31
HNK Gorica
1.71

HNK Gorica creates 31% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 9 away

creates per match

Primorje
1.50
HNK Gorica
1.67

allows per match

Primorje
1.75
HNK Gorica
1.11

finishing

Primorje+0.00on par
HNK Gorica+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Primorje ↓

HNK Gorica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Primorje or draw
53%
Primorje or HNK Gorica
76%
Draw or HNK Gorica
71%

Winning margin

Primorje wins by 2+
13%
HNK Gorica wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Primorje 1+ goals
73%
Primorje 2+ goals
38%
Primorje 3+ goals
14%
HNK Gorica 1+ goals
82%
HNK Gorica 2+ goals
51%
HNK Gorica 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Primorje (draw refunded)
39%
HNK Gorica (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Primorje at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.75 · 8 matches

HNK Gorica away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Primorje attack 1.50 + HNK Gorica defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.31

HNK Gorica attack 1.67 + Primorje defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Primorje scores more
29%
level
24%
HNK Gorica scores more
47%

HNK Gorica at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "HNK Gorica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'
A. Erceg
90'
D. BabinPenalty
Primorje
HNK
M. Anđelković
Manager: M. Anđelković
Mario Carević
Manager: Mario Carević

Match Recap: Primorje vs HNK Gorica

Primorje and HNK Gorica drew 1-1 in Friendlies Clubs on January 12, 2025.

Goals: A. Erceg (13'), D. Babin (90' pen).