Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Primorac Biograd vs Zmaj Makarska — Third NL - Jug 2019

Primorac Biograd
Primorac Biograd
FT
1 – 0
Zmaj Makarska
Zmaj Makarska
9/13/2023Third NL - JugThird NL - Jug · South - 4Gradski stadion Kazimir i Silvio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Primorac Biograd61%
×Draw22%
Zmaj Makarska18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Primorac Biograd
1.96
Zmaj Makarska
0.95

Primorac Biograd creates 106% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 78 away

creates per match

Primorac Biograd
1.72
Zmaj Makarska
0.64

allows per match

Primorac Biograd
1.25
Zmaj Makarska
2.21

finishing

Primorac Biograd+0.00on par
Zmaj Makarska+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Primorac Biograd ↓

Zmaj Makarska →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Primorac Biograd or draw
82%
Primorac Biograd or Zmaj Makarska
78%
Draw or Zmaj Makarska
39%

Winning margin

Primorac Biograd wins by 2+
36%
Zmaj Makarska wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Primorac Biograd 1+ goals
86%
Primorac Biograd 2+ goals
58%
Primorac Biograd 3+ goals
31%
Zmaj Makarska 1+ goals
61%
Zmaj Makarska 2+ goals
25%
Zmaj Makarska 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Primorac Biograd (draw refunded)
77%
Zmaj Makarska (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Primorac Biograd at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.25 · 102 matches

Zmaj Makarska away — creates 0.64, concedes 2.21 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Primorac Biograd attack 1.72 + Zmaj Makarska defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.96

Zmaj Makarska attack 0.64 + Primorac Biograd defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Primorac Biograd scores more
61%
level
22%
Zmaj Makarska scores more
18%

Primorac Biograd at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Primorac Biograd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Primorac Biograd vs Zmaj Makarska

Primorac Biograd beat Zmaj Makarska 1-0 in Third NL - Jug on September 13, 2023.

The match was played at Gradski stadion Kazimir i Silvio in Biograd na Moru.