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Primorac Biograd vs Neretvanac Opuzen — Third NL - Jug 2019

Primorac Biograd
Primorac Biograd
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Neretvanac Opuzen
Neretvanac Opuzen
5/9/2026Third NL - JugThird NL - Jug · South - 27Gradski stadion Kazimir i Silvio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 102+ matches

Primorac Biograd54%
×Draw23%
Neretvanac Opuzen24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Primorac Biograd
1.88
Neretvanac Opuzen
1.17

Primorac Biograd creates 61% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 102 away

creates per match

Primorac Biograd
1.72
Neretvanac Opuzen
1.09

allows per match

Primorac Biograd
1.25
Neretvanac Opuzen
2.04

finishing

Primorac Biograd+0.00on par
Neretvanac Opuzen+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Primorac Biograd ↓

Neretvanac Opuzen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Primorac Biograd or draw
76%
Primorac Biograd or Neretvanac Opuzen
77%
Draw or Neretvanac Opuzen
46%

Winning margin

Primorac Biograd wins by 2+
31%
Neretvanac Opuzen wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Primorac Biograd 1+ goals
85%
Primorac Biograd 2+ goals
56%
Primorac Biograd 3+ goals
29%
Neretvanac Opuzen 1+ goals
69%
Neretvanac Opuzen 2+ goals
33%
Neretvanac Opuzen 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Primorac Biograd (draw refunded)
70%
Neretvanac Opuzen (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Primorac Biograd at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.25 · 102 matches

Neretvanac Opuzen away — creates 1.09, concedes 2.04 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Primorac Biograd attack 1.72 + Neretvanac Opuzen defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.88

Neretvanac Opuzen attack 1.09 + Primorac Biograd defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Primorac Biograd scores more
54%
level
23%
Neretvanac Opuzen scores more
24%

Primorac Biograd at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Primorac Biograd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third NL - Jug: Primorac Biograd 2–2 Neretvanac Opuzen

Primorac Biograd and Neretvanac Opuzen drew 2-2 in Third NL - Jug on May 9, 2026.

The match was played at Gradski stadion Kazimir i Silvio in Biograd na Moru.