Primorac Biograd 2–3 Neretva Metković

Primorac Biograd

FT

2 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Neretva Metković

10/18/2025

Third NL - Jug · South - 9Gradski stadion Kazimir i Silvio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 102+ matches

Primorac Biograd47%

×Draw23%

Neretva Metković30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Primorac BiogradExpected goals in this matchNeretva Metković

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.34

Primorac Biograd

1.75

Neretva Metković

1.34

Primorac Biograd creates 31% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 102 away

1.72

creates per match

1.44

1.25

allows per match

1.77

creates per match

Primorac Biograd

1.72

Neretva Metković

1.44

allows per match

Primorac Biograd

1.25

Neretva Metković

1.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Primorac Biograd+0.00on par

Neretva Metković+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Primorac Biograd ↓

Neretva Metković →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Primorac Biograd or draw

70%

Primorac Biograd or Neretva Metković

77%

Draw or Neretva Metković

53%

Winning margin

Primorac Biograd wins by 2+

25%

Neretva Metković wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Primorac Biograd 1+ goals

83%

Primorac Biograd 2+ goals

52%

Primorac Biograd 3+ goals

25%

Neretva Metković 1+ goals

74%

Neretva Metković 2+ goals

39%

Neretva Metković 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Primorac Biograd (draw refunded)

61%

Neretva Metković (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Primorac Biograd at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.25 · 102 matches

Neretva Metković away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.77 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Primorac Biograd attack 1.72 + Neretva Metković defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.75

Neretva Metković attack 1.44 + Primorac Biograd defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Primorac Biograd scores more

47%

level

23%

Neretva Metković scores more

30%

Primorac Biograd at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Primorac Biograd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff