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Primorac Biograd vs Junak — Third NL - Jug 2019

Primorac Biograd
Primorac Biograd
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Junak
Junak
11/2/2025Third NL - JugThird NL - Jug · South - 11Gradski stadion Kazimir i Silvio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Primorac Biograd46%
×Draw25%
Junak29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Primorac Biograd
1.60
Junak
1.23

Primorac Biograd creates 30% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 86 away

creates per match

Primorac Biograd
1.72
Junak
1.20

allows per match

Primorac Biograd
1.25
Junak
1.49

finishing

Primorac Biograd+0.00on par
Junak+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Primorac Biograd ↓

Junak →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Primorac Biograd or draw
71%
Primorac Biograd or Junak
75%
Draw or Junak
54%

Winning margin

Primorac Biograd wins by 2+
24%
Junak wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Primorac Biograd 1+ goals
80%
Primorac Biograd 2+ goals
47%
Primorac Biograd 3+ goals
22%
Junak 1+ goals
71%
Junak 2+ goals
35%
Junak 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Primorac Biograd (draw refunded)
61%
Junak (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Primorac Biograd at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.25 · 102 matches

Junak away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.49 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Primorac Biograd attack 1.72 + Junak defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.60

Junak attack 1.20 + Primorac Biograd defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Primorac Biograd scores more
46%
level
25%
Junak scores more
29%

Primorac Biograd at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Primorac Biograd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Primorac Biograd vs Junak

Junak beat Primorac Biograd 1-0 in Third NL - Jug on November 2, 2025.

The match was played at Gradski stadion Kazimir i Silvio in Biograd na Moru.