Primorac Biograd 1–1 GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica

Primorac Biograd

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica

9/20/2025

Third NL - Jug · South - 5Gradski stadion Kazimir i Silvio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Primorac Biograd46%

×Draw25%

GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Primorac BiogradExpected goals in this matchGOŠK Kaštel Gomilica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

1.21

Primorac Biograd

1.59

GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica

1.21

Primorac Biograd creates 31% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 60 away

1.72

creates per match

1.18

1.25

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Primorac Biograd

1.72

GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica

1.18

allows per match

Primorac Biograd

1.25

GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Primorac Biograd+0.00on par

GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Primorac Biograd ↓

GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Primorac Biograd or draw

71%

Primorac Biograd or GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica

75%

Draw or GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica

54%

Winning margin

Primorac Biograd wins by 2+

24%

GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Primorac Biograd 1+ goals

80%

Primorac Biograd 2+ goals

47%

Primorac Biograd 3+ goals

21%

GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica 1+ goals

70%

GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica 2+ goals

34%

GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Primorac Biograd (draw refunded)

61%

GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Primorac Biograd at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.25 · 102 matches

GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.47 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Primorac Biograd attack 1.72 + GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.59

GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica attack 1.18 + Primorac Biograd defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Primorac Biograd scores more

46%

level

25%

GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica scores more

29%

Primorac Biograd at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Primorac Biograd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff