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Prime Bangkok vs Thonburi Forest — FA Cup 2018

Prime Bangkok
Prime Bangkok
FT
5 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Thonburi Forest
Thonburi Forest
11/1/2023FA CupFA Cup · 2nd RoundRamkhamhaeng University Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Prime Bangkok97%
×Draw2%
Thonburi Forest1%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Prime Bangkok
5.00
Thonburi Forest
0.34

Prime Bangkok creates 1371% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Prime Bangkok
4.00
Thonburi Forest
0.00

allows per match

Prime Bangkok
0.67
Thonburi Forest
6.00

finishing

Prime Bangkok+0.00on par
Thonburi Forest+0.00on par

Total goals

87%Over
  • Over87
  • Under13

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%No
  • No71
  • Yes29

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Prime Bangkok ↓

Thonburi Forest →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–10%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–11%
1–20%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–13%
2–20%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–013%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–016%
4–16%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 4–0 (16%) · grid covers 58% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
87%13%3.5
71%29%4.5
50%50%

Double chance

Prime Bangkok or draw
99%
Prime Bangkok or Thonburi Forest
98%
Draw or Thonburi Forest
3%

Winning margin

Prime Bangkok wins by 2+
91%
Thonburi Forest wins by 2+
0%

Team goals

Prime Bangkok 1+ goals
99%
Prime Bangkok 2+ goals
95%
Prime Bangkok 3+ goals
84%
Thonburi Forest 1+ goals
29%
Thonburi Forest 2+ goals
5%
Thonburi Forest 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Prime Bangkok (draw refunded)
99%
Thonburi Forest (draw refunded)
1%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
1%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Prime Bangkok at home — creates 4.00, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

Thonburi Forest away — creates 0.00, concedes 6.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Prime Bangkok attack 4.00 + Thonburi Forest defence 6.00 → ÷2 → 5.00

Thonburi Forest attack 0.00 + Prime Bangkok defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 97%?"

Prime Bangkok scores more
97%
level
2%
Thonburi Forest scores more
1%

Prime Bangkok at 97% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 97% does not mean "Prime Bangkok will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Cup: Prime Bangkok 5–0 Thonburi Forest

Prime Bangkok beat Thonburi Forest 5-0 in FA Cup on November 1, 2023.

The match was played at Ramkhamhaeng University Stadium in Bangkok.