Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Prime Bangkok vs Royal Thai Fleet — FA Cup 2018

Prime Bangkok
Prime Bangkokadvanced
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Royal Thai Fleet
Royal Thai Fleet
12/21/2025FA CupFA Cup · Round of 32

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Prime Bangkok83%
×Draw11%
Royal Thai Fleet6%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Prime Bangkok
3.30
Royal Thai Fleet
0.83

Prime Bangkok creates 298% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

creates per match

Prime Bangkok
4.00
Royal Thai Fleet
1.00

allows per match

Prime Bangkok
0.67
Royal Thai Fleet
2.60

finishing

Prime Bangkok+0.00on par
Royal Thai Fleet+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Prime Bangkok ↓

Royal Thai Fleet →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–15%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–17%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (10%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
57%43%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Prime Bangkok or draw
94%
Prime Bangkok or Royal Thai Fleet
89%
Draw or Royal Thai Fleet
17%

Winning margin

Prime Bangkok wins by 2+
66%
Royal Thai Fleet wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Prime Bangkok 1+ goals
96%
Prime Bangkok 2+ goals
83%
Prime Bangkok 3+ goals
62%
Royal Thai Fleet 1+ goals
56%
Royal Thai Fleet 2+ goals
20%
Royal Thai Fleet 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Prime Bangkok (draw refunded)
93%
Royal Thai Fleet (draw refunded)
7%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Prime Bangkok at home — creates 4.00, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

Royal Thai Fleet away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Prime Bangkok attack 4.00 + Royal Thai Fleet defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 3.30

Royal Thai Fleet attack 1.00 + Prime Bangkok defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 83%?"

Prime Bangkok scores more
83%
level
11%
Royal Thai Fleet scores more
6%

Prime Bangkok at 83% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 83% does not mean "Prime Bangkok will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Cup: Prime Bangkok 3–2 Royal Thai Fleet

Prime Bangkok beat Royal Thai Fleet 3-2 in FA Cup on December 21, 2025.