Prime Bangkok 0–2 Kasetsart FC: Result & Stats

Prime Bangkok

0 – 2

Kasetsart FC

11/3/2021

League Cup · Play-offsThupatemee Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Prime Bangkok35%

×Draw30%

Kasetsart FC35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Prime BangkokExpected goals in this matchKasetsart FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.04

1.05

Prime Bangkok

1.04

Kasetsart FC

1.05

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 4 away

1.57

creates per match

1.25

0.86

allows per match

0.50

creates per match

Prime Bangkok

1.57

Kasetsart FC

1.25

allows per match

Prime Bangkok

0.86

Kasetsart FC

0.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Prime Bangkok+0.00on par

Kasetsart FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Prime Bangkok ↓

Kasetsart FC →

0–012%

0–113%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1–013%

1–114%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Prime Bangkok or draw

65%

Prime Bangkok or Kasetsart FC

70%

Draw or Kasetsart FC

65%

Winning margin

Prime Bangkok wins by 2+

13%

Kasetsart FC wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Prime Bangkok 1+ goals

65%

Prime Bangkok 2+ goals

28%

Prime Bangkok 3+ goals

Kasetsart FC 1+ goals

65%

Kasetsart FC 2+ goals

28%

Kasetsart FC 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Prime Bangkok (draw refunded)

50%

Kasetsart FC (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Prime Bangkok at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.86 · 7 matches

Kasetsart FC away — creates 1.25, concedes 0.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Prime Bangkok attack 1.57 + Kasetsart FC defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 1.04

Kasetsart FC attack 1.25 + Prime Bangkok defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 35%?"

Prime Bangkok scores more

35%

level

30%

Kasetsart FC scores more

35%

Prime Bangkok at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Prime Bangkok will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff