Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Prime Bangkok vs Cha Choeng Sao — FA Cup 2018

Prime Bangkok
Prime Bangkok
FT
4 – 0
Cha Choeng Sao
Cha Choeng Sao
10/4/2023FA CupFA Cup · 1st RoundRamkhamhaeng University Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Prime Bangkok84%
×Draw10%
Cha Choeng Sao6%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Prime Bangkok
3.42
Cha Choeng Sao
0.83

Prime Bangkok creates 312% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 6 away

creates per match

Prime Bangkok
4.00
Cha Choeng Sao
1.00

allows per match

Prime Bangkok
0.67
Cha Choeng Sao
2.83

finishing

Prime Bangkok+0.00on par
Cha Choeng Sao+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Prime Bangkok ↓

Cha Choeng Sao →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–14%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–09%
4–17%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (10%) · grid covers 79% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Prime Bangkok or draw
94%
Prime Bangkok or Cha Choeng Sao
90%
Draw or Cha Choeng Sao
16%

Winning margin

Prime Bangkok wins by 2+
67%
Cha Choeng Sao wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Prime Bangkok 1+ goals
97%
Prime Bangkok 2+ goals
85%
Prime Bangkok 3+ goals
64%
Cha Choeng Sao 1+ goals
56%
Cha Choeng Sao 2+ goals
20%
Cha Choeng Sao 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Prime Bangkok (draw refunded)
94%
Cha Choeng Sao (draw refunded)
6%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Prime Bangkok at home — creates 4.00, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

Cha Choeng Sao away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Prime Bangkok attack 4.00 + Cha Choeng Sao defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 3.42

Cha Choeng Sao attack 1.00 + Prime Bangkok defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 84%?"

Prime Bangkok scores more
84%
level
10%
Cha Choeng Sao scores more
6%

Prime Bangkok at 84% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 84% does not mean "Prime Bangkok will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Prime Bangkok vs Cha Choeng Sao

Prime Bangkok beat Cha Choeng Sao 4-0 in FA Cup on October 4, 2023.

The match was played at Ramkhamhaeng University Stadium in Bangkok.