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Primavera MG vs Luverdense — League #630 2026

Primavera MG
Primavera MG
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Luverdense
Luverdense
2/11/2024League #630League #630 · 1st Round - 6Estádio Municipal Antônio Santo Renosto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Primavera MG14%
×Draw27%
Luverdense59%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Primavera MG
0.54
Luverdense
1.44

Luverdense creates 167% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

creates per match

Primavera MG
0.67
Luverdense
1.20

allows per match

Primavera MG
1.67
Luverdense
0.40

finishing

Primavera MG+0.00on par
Luverdense+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Primavera MG ↓

Luverdense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–120%
0–214%
0–37%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–02%
2–13%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (20%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Primavera MG or draw
41%
Primavera MG or Luverdense
73%
Draw or Luverdense
86%

Winning margin

Primavera MG wins by 2+
3%
Luverdense wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Primavera MG 1+ goals
42%
Primavera MG 2+ goals
10%
Primavera MG 3+ goals
2%
Luverdense 1+ goals
76%
Luverdense 2+ goals
42%
Luverdense 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Primavera MG (draw refunded)
19%
Luverdense (draw refunded)
81%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Primavera MG at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

Luverdense away — creates 1.20, concedes 0.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Primavera MG attack 0.67 + Luverdense defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 0.54

Luverdense attack 1.20 + Primavera MG defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Primavera MG scores more
14%
level
27%
Luverdense scores more
59%

Luverdense at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Luverdense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Primavera MG vs Luverdense

Luverdense beat Primavera MG 3-0 in League #630 on February 11, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Antônio Santo Renosto in Primavera do Leste, Mato Grosso.