Pride of Gall Hill 3–1 Silver Sands: Result & Stats

Pride of Gall Hill

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Silver Sands

3/14/2025

Premier League · Round 5Dover Playing Fields

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Pride of Gall Hill70%

×Draw16%

Silver Sands13%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pride of Gall HillExpected goals in this matchSilver Sands

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.61

1.04

Pride of Gall Hill

2.61

Silver Sands

1.04

Pride of Gall Hill creates 151% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 23 away

1.74

creates per match

0.83

1.26

allows per match

3.48

creates per match

Pride of Gall Hill

1.74

Silver Sands

0.83

allows per match

Pride of Gall Hill

1.26

Silver Sands

3.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pride of Gall Hill+0.00on par

Silver Sands+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pride of Gall Hill ↓

Silver Sands →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–17%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Pride of Gall Hill or draw

87%

Pride of Gall Hill or Silver Sands

84%

Draw or Silver Sands

30%

Winning margin

Pride of Gall Hill wins by 2+

49%

Silver Sands wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Pride of Gall Hill 1+ goals

93%

Pride of Gall Hill 2+ goals

73%

Pride of Gall Hill 3+ goals

47%

Silver Sands 1+ goals

65%

Silver Sands 2+ goals

28%

Silver Sands 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Pride of Gall Hill (draw refunded)

84%

Silver Sands (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pride of Gall Hill at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.26 · 19 matches

Silver Sands away — creates 0.83, concedes 3.48 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pride of Gall Hill attack 1.74 + Silver Sands defence 3.48 → ÷2 → 2.61

Silver Sands attack 0.83 + Pride of Gall Hill defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Pride of Gall Hill scores more

70%

level

16%

Silver Sands scores more

13%

Pride of Gall Hill at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Pride of Gall Hill will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff