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Pride of Gall Hill vs Deacons — Premier League 2024

Pride of Gall Hill
Pride of Gall Hill
FT
5 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Deacons
Deacons
1/23/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 1Friendship Playing Fields

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Pride of Gall Hill60%
×Draw20%
Deacons20%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pride of Gall Hill
2.29
Deacons
1.26

Pride of Gall Hill creates 82% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 19 away

creates per match

Pride of Gall Hill
1.74
Deacons
1.26

allows per match

Pride of Gall Hill
1.26
Deacons
2.84

finishing

Pride of Gall Hill+0.00on par
Deacons+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pride of Gall Hill ↓

Deacons →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Pride of Gall Hill or draw
80%
Pride of Gall Hill or Deacons
80%
Draw or Deacons
40%

Winning margin

Pride of Gall Hill wins by 2+
38%
Deacons wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Pride of Gall Hill 1+ goals
90%
Pride of Gall Hill 2+ goals
66%
Pride of Gall Hill 3+ goals
40%
Deacons 1+ goals
72%
Deacons 2+ goals
36%
Deacons 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Pride of Gall Hill (draw refunded)
75%
Deacons (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pride of Gall Hill at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.26 · 19 matches

Deacons away — creates 1.26, concedes 2.84 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pride of Gall Hill attack 1.74 + Deacons defence 2.84 → ÷2 → 2.29

Deacons attack 1.26 + Pride of Gall Hill defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Pride of Gall Hill scores more
60%
level
20%
Deacons scores more
20%

Pride of Gall Hill at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Pride of Gall Hill will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pride of Gall Hill vs Deacons

Pride of Gall Hill beat Deacons 5-1 in Premier League on January 23, 2025.

The match was played at Friendship Playing Fields in Friendship.