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Příbram vs Vyškov — FNL 2019

Příbram
Příbram
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Vyškov
Vyškov
5/25/2024FNLFNL · Round 30Stadion Na Litavce

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Příbram37%
×Draw28%
Vyškov35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Příbram
1.21
Vyškov
1.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 60 home / 60 away

creates per match

Příbram
1.20
Vyškov
1.17

allows per match

Příbram
1.13
Vyškov
1.22

finishing

Příbram+0.00on par
Vyškov+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Příbram ↓

Vyškov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Příbram or draw
65%
Příbram or Vyškov
72%
Draw or Vyškov
63%

Winning margin

Příbram wins by 2+
16%
Vyškov wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Příbram 1+ goals
70%
Příbram 2+ goals
34%
Příbram 3+ goals
12%
Vyškov 1+ goals
68%
Vyškov 2+ goals
32%
Vyškov 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Příbram (draw refunded)
52%
Vyškov (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Příbram at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.13 · 60 matches

Vyškov away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.22 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Příbram attack 1.20 + Vyškov defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.21

Vyškov attack 1.17 + Příbram defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Příbram scores more
37%
level
28%
Vyškov scores more
35%

Příbram at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Příbram will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Příbram vs Vyškov

Příbram beat Vyškov 2-0 in FNL on May 25, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Na Litavce in Příbram.