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Příbram vs Viktoria Žižkov — FNL 2019

Příbram
Příbram
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Viktoria Žižkov
Viktoria Žižkov
11/10/2023FNLFNL · Round 16Stadion Na Litavce

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Příbram44%
×Draw25%
Viktoria Žižkov30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Příbram
1.51
Viktoria Žižkov
1.21

Příbram creates 25% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 88 away

creates per match

Příbram
1.20
Viktoria Žižkov
1.30

allows per match

Příbram
1.13
Viktoria Žižkov
1.82

finishing

Příbram+0.00on par
Viktoria Žižkov+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Příbram ↓

Viktoria Žižkov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Příbram or draw
70%
Příbram or Viktoria Žižkov
75%
Draw or Viktoria Žižkov
56%

Winning margin

Příbram wins by 2+
22%
Viktoria Žižkov wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Příbram 1+ goals
78%
Příbram 2+ goals
44%
Příbram 3+ goals
19%
Viktoria Žižkov 1+ goals
70%
Viktoria Žižkov 2+ goals
34%
Viktoria Žižkov 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Příbram (draw refunded)
59%
Viktoria Žižkov (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Příbram at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.13 · 60 matches

Viktoria Žižkov away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.82 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Příbram attack 1.20 + Viktoria Žižkov defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.51

Viktoria Žižkov attack 1.30 + Příbram defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Příbram scores more
44%
level
25%
Viktoria Žižkov scores more
30%

Příbram at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Příbram will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Příbram vs Viktoria Žižkov

Příbram beat Viktoria Žižkov 1-0 in FNL on November 10, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Na Litavce in Příbram.