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Příbram vs Artis — FNL 2019

Příbram
Příbram
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Artis
Artis
3/10/2023FNLFNL · Round 18Stadion Na Litavce

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Příbram36%
×Draw28%
Artis36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Příbram
1.21
Artis
1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 60 home / 103 away

creates per match

Příbram
1.20
Artis
1.28

allows per match

Příbram
1.13
Artis
1.21

finishing

Příbram+0.00on par
Artis+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Příbram ↓

Artis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Příbram or draw
64%
Příbram or Artis
72%
Draw or Artis
64%

Winning margin

Příbram wins by 2+
15%
Artis wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Příbram 1+ goals
70%
Příbram 2+ goals
34%
Příbram 3+ goals
12%
Artis 1+ goals
70%
Artis 2+ goals
34%
Artis 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Příbram (draw refunded)
50%
Artis (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Příbram at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.13 · 60 matches

Artis away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.21 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Příbram attack 1.20 + Artis defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.21

Artis attack 1.28 + Příbram defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Příbram scores more
36%
level
28%
Artis scores more
36%

Příbram at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Příbram will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Příbram vs Artis

Příbram beat Artis 2-0 in FNL on March 10, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Na Litavce in Příbram.