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Příbram U19 vs Karviná U19 — 1. Liga U19 2020

Příbram U19
Příbram U19
FT
3 – 1
Karviná U19
Karviná U19
10/2/20211. Liga U191. Liga U19 · Round 10Na Litavce UMT

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Příbram U1928%
×Draw21%
Karviná U1951%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Příbram U19
1.58
Karviná U19
2.18

Karviná U19 creates 38% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 63 away

creates per match

Příbram U19
0.88
Karviná U19
1.24

allows per match

Příbram U19
3.12
Karviná U19
2.29

finishing

Příbram U19+0.00on par
Karviná U19+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Příbram U19 ↓

Karviná U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Příbram U19 or draw
49%
Příbram U19 or Karviná U19
79%
Draw or Karviná U19
72%

Winning margin

Příbram U19 wins by 2+
13%
Karviná U19 wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Příbram U19 1+ goals
79%
Příbram U19 2+ goals
47%
Příbram U19 3+ goals
21%
Karviná U19 1+ goals
89%
Karviná U19 2+ goals
64%
Karviná U19 3+ goals
37%

Draw no bet

Příbram U19 (draw refunded)
35%
Karviná U19 (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Příbram U19 at home — creates 0.88, concedes 3.12 · 34 matches

Karviná U19 away — creates 1.24, concedes 2.29 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Příbram U19 attack 0.88 + Karviná U19 defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 1.58

Karviná U19 attack 1.24 + Příbram U19 defence 3.12 → ÷2 → 2.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Příbram U19 scores more
28%
level
21%
Karviná U19 scores more
51%

Karviná U19 at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Karviná U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Příbram U19 vs Karviná U19

Příbram U19 beat Karviná U19 3-1 in 1. Liga U19 on October 2, 2021.

The match was played at Na Litavce UMT in Příbram.