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Příbram II vs Spartak Soběslav — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Příbram II
Příbram II
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Spartak Soběslav
Spartak Soběslav
3/23/20244. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Division A - 19Na Litavce UMT

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Příbram II40%
×Draw23%
Spartak Soběslav37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Příbram II
1.66
Spartak Soběslav
1.60

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 45 home / 86 away

creates per match

Příbram II
1.62
Spartak Soběslav
1.73

allows per match

Příbram II
1.47
Spartak Soběslav
1.69

finishing

Příbram II+0.00on par
Spartak Soběslav+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Příbram II ↓

Spartak Soběslav →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Příbram II or draw
63%
Příbram II or Spartak Soběslav
77%
Draw or Spartak Soběslav
60%

Winning margin

Příbram II wins by 2+
20%
Spartak Soběslav wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Příbram II 1+ goals
81%
Příbram II 2+ goals
49%
Příbram II 3+ goals
23%
Spartak Soběslav 1+ goals
80%
Spartak Soběslav 2+ goals
47%
Spartak Soběslav 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Příbram II (draw refunded)
52%
Spartak Soběslav (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Příbram II at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.47 · 45 matches

Spartak Soběslav away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.69 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Příbram II attack 1.62 + Spartak Soběslav defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.66

Spartak Soběslav attack 1.73 + Příbram II defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Příbram II scores more
40%
level
23%
Spartak Soběslav scores more
37%

Příbram II at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Příbram II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie A: Příbram II 3–2 Spartak Soběslav

Příbram II beat Spartak Soběslav 3-2 in 4. liga - Divizie A on March 23, 2024.

The match was played at Na Litavce UMT in Příbram.