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Příbram II vs Otava Katovice — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Příbram II
Příbram II
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Otava Katovice
Otava Katovice
3/9/20244. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Division A - 17Na Litavce UMT

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Příbram II50%
×Draw22%
Otava Katovice28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Příbram II
1.96
Otava Katovice
1.41

Příbram II creates 39% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 56 away

creates per match

Příbram II
1.62
Otava Katovice
1.34

allows per match

Příbram II
1.47
Otava Katovice
2.30

finishing

Příbram II+0.00on par
Otava Katovice+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Příbram II ↓

Otava Katovice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Příbram II or draw
72%
Příbram II or Otava Katovice
78%
Draw or Otava Katovice
50%

Winning margin

Příbram II wins by 2+
29%
Otava Katovice wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Příbram II 1+ goals
86%
Příbram II 2+ goals
58%
Příbram II 3+ goals
31%
Otava Katovice 1+ goals
76%
Otava Katovice 2+ goals
41%
Otava Katovice 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Příbram II (draw refunded)
64%
Otava Katovice (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Příbram II at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.47 · 45 matches

Otava Katovice away — creates 1.34, concedes 2.30 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Příbram II attack 1.62 + Otava Katovice defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 1.96

Otava Katovice attack 1.34 + Příbram II defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Příbram II scores more
50%
level
22%
Otava Katovice scores more
28%

Příbram II at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Příbram II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Příbram II vs Otava Katovice

Příbram II and Otava Katovice drew 0-0 in 4. liga - Divizie A on March 9, 2024.

The match was played at Na Litavce UMT in Příbram.