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Příbram II vs Jindřichův Hradec — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Příbram II
Příbram II
FT
3 – 1
HT: 3 – 1
Jindřichův Hradec
Jindřichův Hradec
6/15/20244. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Division A - 16Na Litavce UMT

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Příbram II55%
×Draw21%
Jindřichův Hradec24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Příbram II
2.06
Jindřichův Hradec
1.30

Příbram II creates 58% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 56 away

creates per match

Příbram II
1.62
Jindřichův Hradec
1.14

allows per match

Příbram II
1.47
Jindřichův Hradec
2.50

finishing

Příbram II+0.00on par
Jindřichův Hradec+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Příbram II ↓

Jindřichův Hradec →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Příbram II or draw
76%
Příbram II or Jindřichův Hradec
79%
Draw or Jindřichův Hradec
45%

Winning margin

Příbram II wins by 2+
33%
Jindřichův Hradec wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Příbram II 1+ goals
87%
Příbram II 2+ goals
61%
Příbram II 3+ goals
34%
Jindřichův Hradec 1+ goals
73%
Jindřichův Hradec 2+ goals
37%
Jindřichův Hradec 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Příbram II (draw refunded)
70%
Jindřichův Hradec (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Příbram II at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.47 · 45 matches

Jindřichův Hradec away — creates 1.14, concedes 2.50 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Příbram II attack 1.62 + Jindřichův Hradec defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.06

Jindřichův Hradec attack 1.14 + Příbram II defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Příbram II scores more
55%
level
21%
Jindřichův Hradec scores more
24%

Příbram II at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Příbram II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Příbram II vs Jindřichův Hradec

Příbram II beat Jindřichův Hradec 3-1 in 4. liga - Divizie A on June 15, 2024.

The match was played at Na Litavce UMT in Příbram.