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Příbram II vs Horní Bříza — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Příbram II
Příbram II
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Horní Bříza
Horní Bříza
10/23/20224. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Division A - 12Na Litavce UMT

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Příbram II64%
×Draw20%
Horní Bříza16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Příbram II
2.11
Horní Bříza
0.94

Příbram II creates 124% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 15 away

creates per match

Příbram II
1.62
Horní Bříza
0.40

allows per match

Příbram II
1.47
Horní Bříza
2.60

finishing

Příbram II+0.00on par
Horní Bříza+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Příbram II ↓

Horní Bříza →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Příbram II or draw
84%
Příbram II or Horní Bříza
80%
Draw or Horní Bříza
36%

Winning margin

Příbram II wins by 2+
40%
Horní Bříza wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Příbram II 1+ goals
88%
Příbram II 2+ goals
62%
Příbram II 3+ goals
35%
Horní Bříza 1+ goals
61%
Horní Bříza 2+ goals
24%
Horní Bříza 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Příbram II (draw refunded)
80%
Horní Bříza (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Příbram II at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.47 · 45 matches

Horní Bříza away — creates 0.40, concedes 2.60 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Příbram II attack 1.62 + Horní Bříza defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.11

Horní Bříza attack 0.40 + Příbram II defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Příbram II scores more
64%
level
20%
Horní Bříza scores more
16%

Příbram II at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Příbram II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Příbram II 2 – 1 Horní Bříza

Příbram II beat Horní Bříza 2-1 in 4. liga - Divizie A on October 23, 2022.

The match was played at Na Litavce UMT in Příbram.