Preussen Munster 1–1 VfL Wolfsburg: Result & Stats

Preussen Munster

AET

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

VfL Wolfsburg

8/8/2021

DFB Pokal · 1st RoundPreußen-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Preussen Munster3%

×Draw9%

VfL Wolfsburg87%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Preussen MunsterExpected goals in this matchVfL Wolfsburg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.50

3.13

Preussen Munster

0.50

VfL Wolfsburg

3.13

VfL Wolfsburg creates 526% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 12 away

0.33

creates per match

2.25

4.00

allows per match

0.67

creates per match

Preussen Munster

0.33

VfL Wolfsburg

2.25

allows per match

Preussen Munster

4.00

VfL Wolfsburg

0.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Preussen Munster+0.00on par

VfL Wolfsburg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Preussen Munster ↓

VfL Wolfsburg →

0–03%

0–19%

0–214%

0–314%

0–411%

1–01%

1–14%

1–27%

1–37%

1–46%

2–00%

2–11%

2–22%

2–32%

2–41%

3–00%

3–10%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (14%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Preussen Munster or draw

13%

Preussen Munster or VfL Wolfsburg

91%

Draw or VfL Wolfsburg

97%

Winning margin

Preussen Munster wins by 2+

VfL Wolfsburg wins by 2+

70%

Team goals

Preussen Munster 1+ goals

39%

Preussen Munster 2+ goals

Preussen Munster 3+ goals

VfL Wolfsburg 1+ goals

95%

VfL Wolfsburg 2+ goals

81%

VfL Wolfsburg 3+ goals

59%

Draw no bet

Preussen Munster (draw refunded)

VfL Wolfsburg (draw refunded)

96%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Preussen Munster at home — creates 0.33, concedes 4.00 · 3 matches

VfL Wolfsburg away — creates 2.25, concedes 0.67 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Preussen Munster attack 0.33 + VfL Wolfsburg defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.50

VfL Wolfsburg attack 2.25 + Preussen Munster defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 3.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 87%?"

Preussen Munster scores more

level

VfL Wolfsburg scores more

87%

VfL Wolfsburg at 87% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 87% does not mean "VfL Wolfsburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff