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Preussen Munster vs Hertha Berlin — DFB Pokal 2018

Preussen Munster
Preussen Munster
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Hertha Berlin
Hertha Berlin
10/26/2021DFB PokalDFB Pokal · 2nd RoundPreußen-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Preussen Munster4%
×Draw8%
Hertha Berlin87%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Preussen Munster
0.78
Hertha Berlin
3.67

Hertha Berlin creates 371% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 9 away

creates per match

Preussen Munster
0.33
Hertha Berlin
3.33

allows per match

Preussen Munster
4.00
Hertha Berlin
1.22

finishing

Preussen Munster+0.00on par
Hertha Berlin+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Preussen Munster ↓

Hertha Berlin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–15%
0–29%
0–310%
0–410%
1
1–01%
1–14%
1–27%
1–38%
1–47%
2
2–00%
2–11%
2–23%
2–33%
2–43%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–3 (10%) · grid covers 75% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
81%19%3.5
62%38%4.5
41%59%

Double chance

Preussen Munster or draw
13%
Preussen Munster or Hertha Berlin
92%
Draw or Hertha Berlin
96%

Winning margin

Preussen Munster wins by 2+
1%
Hertha Berlin wins by 2+
72%

Team goals

Preussen Munster 1+ goals
54%
Preussen Munster 2+ goals
18%
Preussen Munster 3+ goals
4%
Hertha Berlin 1+ goals
97%
Hertha Berlin 2+ goals
87%
Hertha Berlin 3+ goals
68%

Draw no bet

Preussen Munster (draw refunded)
5%
Hertha Berlin (draw refunded)
95%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Preussen Munster at home — creates 0.33, concedes 4.00 · 3 matches

Hertha Berlin away — creates 3.33, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Preussen Munster attack 0.33 + Hertha Berlin defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 0.78

Hertha Berlin attack 3.33 + Preussen Munster defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 3.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 87%?"

Preussen Munster scores more
4%
level
8%
Hertha Berlin scores more
87%

Hertha Berlin at 87% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 87% does not mean "Hertha Berlin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

DFB Pokal: Preussen Munster 1–3 Hertha Berlin

Hertha Berlin beat Preussen Munster 3-1 in DFB Pokal on October 26, 2021.

The match was played at Preußen-Stadion in Münster.