Hertha BSC 1–2 Preußen Münster: Result & Stats

Hertha BSC

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Preußen Münster

12/13/2024

2. Bundesliga · Round 16Olympiastadion Berlin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Hertha BSC48%

×Draw24%

Preußen Münster27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hertha BSCExpected goals in this matchPreußen Münster

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.20

Hertha BSC

1.67

Preußen Münster

1.20

Hertha BSC creates 39% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 34 away

1.55

creates per match

1.15

1.25

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

Hertha BSC

1.55

Preußen Münster

1.15

allows per match

Hertha BSC

1.25

Preußen Münster

1.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hertha BSC+0.00on par

Preußen Münster+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hertha BSC ↓

Preußen Münster →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Hertha BSC or draw

73%

Hertha BSC or Preußen Münster

76%

Draw or Preußen Münster

52%

Winning margin

Hertha BSC wins by 2+

26%

Preußen Münster wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Hertha BSC 1+ goals

81%

Hertha BSC 2+ goals

50%

Hertha BSC 3+ goals

23%

Preußen Münster 1+ goals

70%

Preußen Münster 2+ goals

34%

Preußen Münster 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Hertha BSC (draw refunded)

64%

Preußen Münster (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hertha BSC at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.25 · 51 matches

Preußen Münster away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.79 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hertha BSC attack 1.55 + Preußen Münster defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.67

Preußen Münster attack 1.15 + Hertha BSC defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Hertha BSC scores more

48%

level

24%

Preußen Münster scores more

27%

Hertha BSC at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Hertha BSC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff