Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Preußen Münster vs VfB Oldenburg — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Preußen Münster
Preußen Münster
FT
4 – 3
HT: 2 – 1
VfB Oldenburg
VfB Oldenburg
1/13/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Sportpark Berg Fidel Platz 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Preußen Münster27%
×Draw18%
VfB Oldenburg55%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Preußen Münster
1.92
VfB Oldenburg
2.77

VfB Oldenburg creates 44% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 9 away

creates per match

Preußen Münster
2.83
VfB Oldenburg
4.22

allows per match

Preußen Münster
1.33
VfB Oldenburg
1.00

finishing

Preußen Münster+0.00on par
VfB Oldenburg+0.00on par

Total goals

84%Over
  • Over84
  • Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

80%Yes
  • Yes80
  • No20

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Preußen Münster ↓

VfB Oldenburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–24%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–27%
1–36%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
84%16%3.5
68%32%4.5
49%51%

Double chance

Preußen Münster or draw
45%
Preußen Münster or VfB Oldenburg
82%
Draw or VfB Oldenburg
73%

Winning margin

Preußen Münster wins by 2+
13%
VfB Oldenburg wins by 2+
36%

Team goals

Preußen Münster 1+ goals
85%
Preußen Münster 2+ goals
57%
Preußen Münster 3+ goals
30%
VfB Oldenburg 1+ goals
94%
VfB Oldenburg 2+ goals
76%
VfB Oldenburg 3+ goals
51%

Draw no bet

Preußen Münster (draw refunded)
32%
VfB Oldenburg (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
75%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Preußen Münster at home — creates 2.83, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

VfB Oldenburg away — creates 4.22, concedes 1.00 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Preußen Münster attack 2.83 + VfB Oldenburg defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.92

VfB Oldenburg attack 4.22 + Preußen Münster defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 2.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Preußen Münster scores more
27%
level
18%
VfB Oldenburg scores more
55%

VfB Oldenburg at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "VfB Oldenburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Preußen Münster vs VfB Oldenburg

Preußen Münster beat VfB Oldenburg 4-3 in Friendlies Clubs on January 13, 2024.

The match was played at Sportpark Berg Fidel Platz 2 in Münster.