Preußen Münster 1–2 FC Schalke 04: Result & Stats

Preußen Münster

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

FC Schalke 04

9/28/2024

2. Bundesliga · Round 7Preußen-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Preußen Münster36%

×Draw26%

FC Schalke 0437%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Preußen MünsterExpected goals in this matchFC Schalke 04

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.33

Preußen Münster

1.31

FC Schalke 04

1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 68 away

1.15

creates per match

1.41

1.26

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Preußen Münster

1.15

FC Schalke 04

1.41

allows per match

Preußen Münster

1.26

FC Schalke 04

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Preußen Münster+0.00on par

FC Schalke 04+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Preußen Münster ↓

FC Schalke 04 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Preußen Münster or draw

63%

Preußen Münster or FC Schalke 04

74%

Draw or FC Schalke 04

64%

Winning margin

Preußen Münster wins by 2+

16%

FC Schalke 04 wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Preußen Münster 1+ goals

73%

Preußen Münster 2+ goals

38%

Preußen Münster 3+ goals

14%

FC Schalke 04 1+ goals

74%

FC Schalke 04 2+ goals

38%

FC Schalke 04 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Preußen Münster (draw refunded)

49%

FC Schalke 04 (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Preußen Münster at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.26 · 34 matches

FC Schalke 04 away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.47 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Preußen Münster attack 1.15 + FC Schalke 04 defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.31

FC Schalke 04 attack 1.41 + Preußen Münster defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Preußen Münster scores more

36%

level

26%

FC Schalke 04 scores more

37%

FC Schalke 04 at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "FC Schalke 04 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff