Preußen Münster 1–1 Eintracht Braunschweig

Preußen Münster

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Eintracht Braunschweig

3/30/2025

2. Bundesliga · Round 27Preußen-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Preußen Münster48%

×Draw25%

Eintracht Braunschweig27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Preußen MünsterExpected goals in this matchEintracht Braunschweig

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

1.10

Preußen Münster

1.57

Eintracht Braunschweig

1.10

Preußen Münster creates 43% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 87 away

1.15

creates per match

0.94

1.26

allows per match

1.99

creates per match

Preußen Münster

1.15

Eintracht Braunschweig

0.94

allows per match

Preußen Münster

1.26

Eintracht Braunschweig

1.99

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Preußen Münster+0.00on par

Eintracht Braunschweig+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Preußen Münster ↓

Eintracht Braunschweig →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Preußen Münster or draw

73%

Preußen Münster or Eintracht Braunschweig

75%

Draw or Eintracht Braunschweig

52%

Winning margin

Preußen Münster wins by 2+

25%

Eintracht Braunschweig wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Preußen Münster 1+ goals

79%

Preußen Münster 2+ goals

46%

Preußen Münster 3+ goals

21%

Eintracht Braunschweig 1+ goals

67%

Eintracht Braunschweig 2+ goals

30%

Eintracht Braunschweig 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Preußen Münster (draw refunded)

64%

Eintracht Braunschweig (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Preußen Münster at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.26 · 34 matches

Eintracht Braunschweig away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.99 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Preußen Münster attack 1.15 + Eintracht Braunschweig defence 1.99 → ÷2 → 1.57

Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.94 + Preußen Münster defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Preußen Münster scores more

48%

level

25%

Eintracht Braunschweig scores more

27%

Preußen Münster at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Preußen Münster will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff