Preußen Münster U19 1–4 Schalke 04 U19

Preußen Münster U19

FT

1 – 4

HT: 1 – 3

Schalke 04 U19

M. Keute 40'

K. Topp 82', 2'

F. Ouédraogo 24'

K. Aninkorah-Meisel 21'

10/2/2022

U19 Bundesliga · West - 5Preußen-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Preußen Münster U1929%

×Draw22%

Schalke 04 U1948%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Preußen Münster U19Expected goals in this matchSchalke 04 U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.91

Preußen Münster U19

1.45

Schalke 04 U19

1.91

Schalke 04 U19 creates 32% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 68 away

1.66

creates per match

2.00

1.81

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Preußen Münster U19

1.66

Schalke 04 U19

2.00

allows per match

Preußen Münster U19

1.81

Schalke 04 U19

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Preußen Münster U19+0.00on par

Schalke 04 U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Preußen Münster U19 ↓

Schalke 04 U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–17%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Preußen Münster U19 or draw

52%

Preußen Münster U19 or Schalke 04 U19

78%

Draw or Schalke 04 U19

71%

Winning margin

Preußen Münster U19 wins by 2+

13%

Schalke 04 U19 wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Preußen Münster U19 1+ goals

77%

Preußen Münster U19 2+ goals

42%

Preußen Münster U19 3+ goals

18%

Schalke 04 U19 1+ goals

85%

Schalke 04 U19 2+ goals

57%

Schalke 04 U19 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

Preußen Münster U19 (draw refunded)

38%

Schalke 04 U19 (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Preußen Münster U19 at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.81 · 59 matches

Schalke 04 U19 away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.24 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Preußen Münster U19 attack 1.66 + Schalke 04 U19 defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.45

Schalke 04 U19 attack 2.00 + Preußen Münster U19 defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Preußen Münster U19 scores more

29%

level

22%

Schalke 04 U19 scores more

48%

Schalke 04 U19 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Schalke 04 U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'

21'

24'

40'

46'

T. Hausotter← B. Fallbrock

54'

S. Sarrafyar← B. Kronenberg

56'

T. Osmani← K. Aninkorah-Meisel

63'

A. Papenfort← P. Wiemer

63'

M. Pehlivan← D. Tchadjobo

65'

82'

83'

83'

83'

83'

S. Kojic← F. Ouédraogo

Preußen

Schalke

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽2

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: T. Harink

46'▲T. Hausotter←▼B. Fallbrock

54'▲S. Sarrafyar←▼B. Kronenberg

63'▲A. Papenfort←▼P. Wiemer

63'▲M. Pehlivan←▼D. Tchadjobo

83'▲S. Becker←▼P. Pinto

Preußen Münster U19 substitutes

HausotterSarrafyarPapenfortPehlivanBeckerKruphölterAlter

Manager: N. Elgert

56'▲T. Osmani←▼K. Aninkorah-Meisel

65'▲Y. Tonye←▼E. Gyamfi

83'▲D. Milic←▼M. Grüger

83'▲N. Hadzha←▼E. Lanfer

83'▲S. Kojic←▼F. Ouédraogo

Schalke 04 U19 substitutes

OsmaniTonyeMilicHadzhaKojicLikajYusufu

U19 Bundesliga: Preußen Münster U19 1–4 Schalke 04 U19

Schalke 04 U19 beat Preußen Münster U19 4-1 in U19 Bundesliga on October 2, 2022.

Goals: K. Topp (2', 82'), K. Aninkorah-Meisel (21'), F. Ouédraogo (24'), M. Keute (40').

The match was played at Preußen-Stadion in Münster.

Preußen Münster U19 vs Schalke 04 U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: Preußen Münster U19 1–4 Schalke 04 U19