Preußen Münster U19 2–1 Holstein Kiel U19

Preußen Münster U19

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Holstein Kiel U19

T. Hausotter 79' (pen)

A. Papenfort 72'

L. Thele 89'

5/6/2023

U19 Bundesliga · Special Stage - League B - 1Preußen-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Preußen Münster U1949%

×Draw21%

Holstein Kiel U1930%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Preußen Münster U19Expected goals in this matchHolstein Kiel U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.19

1.70

Preußen Münster U19

2.19

Holstein Kiel U19

1.70

Preußen Münster U19 creates 29% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 62 away

1.66

creates per match

1.58

1.81

allows per match

2.73

creates per match

Preußen Münster U19

1.66

Holstein Kiel U19

1.58

allows per match

Preußen Münster U19

1.81

Holstein Kiel U19

2.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Preußen Münster U19+0.00on par

Holstein Kiel U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Preußen Münster U19 ↓

Holstein Kiel U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

54%46%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

Preußen Münster U19 or draw

70%

Preußen Münster U19 or Holstein Kiel U19

79%

Draw or Holstein Kiel U19

51%

Winning margin

Preußen Münster U19 wins by 2+

29%

Holstein Kiel U19 wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Preußen Münster U19 1+ goals

89%

Preußen Münster U19 2+ goals

64%

Preußen Münster U19 3+ goals

37%

Holstein Kiel U19 1+ goals

82%

Holstein Kiel U19 2+ goals

51%

Holstein Kiel U19 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Preußen Münster U19 (draw refunded)

62%

Holstein Kiel U19 (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

65%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Preußen Münster U19 at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.81 · 59 matches

Holstein Kiel U19 away — creates 1.58, concedes 2.73 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Preußen Münster U19 attack 1.66 + Holstein Kiel U19 defence 2.73 → ÷2 → 2.19

Holstein Kiel U19 attack 1.58 + Preußen Münster U19 defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Preußen Münster U19 scores more

49%

level

21%

Holstein Kiel U19 scores more

30%

Preußen Münster U19 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Preußen Münster U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

62'

P. Kruse← M. Sinanović

65'

J. Häusler← S. Becker

65'

M. Bena← A. Hoti

65'

S. Fajic← M. Keute

65'

T. Hausotter← B. Matteo Wolf

70'

J. de Chatrie Doegl← P. Meyer

70'

L. Thele← E. Calikoglu

72'

A. Papenfort

77'

A. Hrnjicic← O. Witt

77'

B. Keskin← I. Ugoh

79'

P. Wiemer← A. Papenfort

79'

T. HausotterPenalty

89'

L. Thele

Preußen

Holstein

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: T. Harink

65'▲J. Häusler←▼S. Becker

65'▲M. Bena←▼A. Hoti

65'▲S. Fajic←▼M. Keute

65'▲T. Hausotter←▼B. Matteo Wolf

79'▲P. Wiemer←▼A. Papenfort

Preußen Münster U19 substitutes

HäuslerBenaFajicHausotterWiemerÖztürkAlter

Manager: F. Raue

62'▲P. Kruse←▼M. Sinanović

70'▲J. de Chatrie Doegl←▼P. Meyer

70'▲L. Thele←▼E. Calikoglu

77'▲A. Hrnjicic←▼O. Witt

77'▲B. Keskin←▼I. Ugoh

Holstein Kiel U19 substitutes

KruseDoeglTheleHrnjicicKeskinMüller-Kalthoff

U19 Bundesliga: Preußen Münster U19 2–1 Holstein Kiel U19

Preußen Münster U19 beat Holstein Kiel U19 2-1 in U19 Bundesliga on May 6, 2023.

Goals: A. Papenfort (72'), T. Hausotter (79' pen), L. Thele (89').

The match was played at Preußen-Stadion in Münster.

Preußen Münster U19 vs Holstein Kiel U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: Preußen Münster U19 2–1 Holstein Kiel U19