Preußen Münster U19 2–2 Fortuna Düsseldorf U19

Preußen Münster U19

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19

M. Demirhan 22'

V. Uka 7'

A. Pesa 58'

A. Slimani 32'

8/10/2024

U19 Bundesliga · 1st Group Stage - 2Sportpark Berg Fidel Platz 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Preußen Münster U1934%

×Draw23%

Fortuna Düsseldorf U1942%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Preußen Münster U19Expected goals in this matchFortuna Düsseldorf U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.73

Preußen Münster U19

1.54

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19

1.73

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 creates 12% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 67 away

1.63

creates per match

1.67

1.79

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Preußen Münster U19

1.63

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19

1.67

allows per match

Preußen Münster U19

1.79

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Preußen Münster U19+0.00on par

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Preußen Münster U19 ↓

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Preußen Münster U19 or draw

58%

Preußen Münster U19 or Fortuna Düsseldorf U19

77%

Draw or Fortuna Düsseldorf U19

66%

Winning margin

Preußen Münster U19 wins by 2+

16%

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Preußen Münster U19 1+ goals

79%

Preußen Münster U19 2+ goals

45%

Preußen Münster U19 3+ goals

20%

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 1+ goals

82%

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 2+ goals

52%

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Preußen Münster U19 (draw refunded)

45%

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Preußen Münster U19 at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.79 · 63 matches

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.46 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Preußen Münster U19 attack 1.63 + Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.54

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 attack 1.67 + Preußen Münster U19 defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Preußen Münster U19 scores more

34%

level

23%

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 scores more

42%

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

V. Uka

22'

M. Demirhan

32'

A. Slimani

46'

A. El-Chaar← T. Igwesi

46'

A. Pesa← N. Nikolaou

58'

A. Pesa

64'

L. Krimphoff← A. Friedrich

70'

N. Egouli← L. Çalışkan

73'

J. Zimmermann← Y. Blaszyk

73'

T. Mehnert← V. Uka

80'

S. Cankirli← A. Slimani

90+1'

L. Dekarski← L. Blackmann

Preußen

Fortuna

Czakó

Krause

Eze

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: J. Hötting

64'▲L. Krimphoff←▼A. Friedrich

73'▲J. Zimmermann←▼Y. Blaszyk

73'▲T. Mehnert←▼V. Uka

90+1'▲L. Dekarski←▼L. Blackmann

Preußen Münster U19 substitutes

KrimphoffZimmermannMehnertDekarskiNoackBreuersAhmedi

Manager: E. Vural

46'▲A. El-Chaar←▼T. Igwesi

46'▲A. Pesa←▼N. Nikolaou

70'▲N. Egouli←▼L. Çalışkan

80'▲S. Cankirli←▼A. Slimani

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 substitutes

El-ChaarPesaEgouliCankirliSevinmezMalykhBamberg

Match Recap: Preußen Münster U19 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf U19

Preußen Münster U19 and Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 drew 2-2 in U19 Bundesliga on August 10, 2024.

Goals: V. Uka (7'), M. Demirhan (22'), A. Slimani (32'), A. Pesa (58').

The match was played at Sportpark Berg Fidel Platz 1 in Münster.

Preußen Münster U19 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Preußen Münster U19 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf U19