Preußen Münster U19 4–2 Borussia M'bach U19

Preußen Münster U19

FT

4 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Borussia M'bach U19

M. Schröder 90+5'

D. Tchadjobo 73'

S. Kaba 64'

J. Wensing 20'

K. Asallari 86'

T. Reitz 28'

9/11/2021

U19 Bundesliga · West - 1Preußen-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Preußen Münster U1929%

×Draw21%

Borussia M'bach U1949%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Preußen Münster U19Expected goals in this matchBorussia M'bach U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

2.06

Preußen Münster U19

1.55

Borussia M'bach U19

2.06

Borussia M'bach U19 creates 33% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 73 away

1.66

creates per match

2.32

1.81

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Preußen Münster U19

1.66

Borussia M'bach U19

2.32

allows per match

Preußen Münster U19

1.81

Borussia M'bach U19

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Preußen Münster U19+0.00on par

Borussia M'bach U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Preußen Münster U19 ↓

Borussia M'bach U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

70%30%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Preußen Münster U19 or draw

51%

Preußen Münster U19 or Borussia M'bach U19

79%

Draw or Borussia M'bach U19

71%

Winning margin

Preußen Münster U19 wins by 2+

14%

Borussia M'bach U19 wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

Preußen Münster U19 1+ goals

79%

Preußen Münster U19 2+ goals

46%

Preußen Münster U19 3+ goals

20%

Borussia M'bach U19 1+ goals

87%

Borussia M'bach U19 2+ goals

61%

Borussia M'bach U19 3+ goals

34%

Draw no bet

Preußen Münster U19 (draw refunded)

37%

Borussia M'bach U19 (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Preußen Münster U19 at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.81 · 59 matches

Borussia M'bach U19 away — creates 2.32, concedes 1.45 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Preußen Münster U19 attack 1.66 + Borussia M'bach U19 defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.55

Borussia M'bach U19 attack 2.32 + Preußen Münster U19 defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 2.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Preußen Münster U19 scores more

29%

level

21%

Borussia M'bach U19 scores more

49%

Borussia M'bach U19 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Borussia M'bach U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'

J. Wensing

28'

T. Reitz

57'

L. Werrmann← L. Barata

60'

D. Tchadjobo← N. Kloth

60'

F. Hinterding← A. Weber

60'

C. Arnold← R. Naderi

64'

S. Kaba

67'

L. Schütz← S. Turping

69'

73'

86'

89'

90+3'

Mikail-Ismail Bayir← J. Wensing

90+5'

M. Schröder

Preußen

Borussia

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Kaba

⚽

▼

Wensing

Manager: A. Barez

60'▲D. Tchadjobo←▼N. Kloth

60'▲F. Hinterding←▼A. Weber

69'▲M. Schröder←▼S. Kaba

90+3'▲Mikail-Ismail Bayir←▼J. Wensing

Preußen Münster U19 substitutes

TchadjoboHinterdingSchröderBayirDybiecBräuerHemsing

Manager: S. Eickel

57'▲L. Werrmann←▼L. Barata

60'▲C. Arnold←▼R. Naderi

67'▲L. Schütz←▼S. Turping

Borussia M'bach U19 substitutes

WerrmannArnoldSchützAddoNackGroßZenku

U19 Bundesliga: Preußen Münster U19 4–2 Borussia M'bach U19

Preußen Münster U19 beat Borussia M'bach U19 4-2 in U19 Bundesliga on September 11, 2021.

Goals: J. Wensing (20'), T. Reitz (28'), S. Kaba (64'), D. Tchadjobo (73'), K. Asallari (86'), M. Schröder (90+5').

The match was played at Preußen-Stadion in Münster.

Preußen Münster U19 vs Borussia M'bach U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: Preußen Münster U19 4–2 Borussia M'bach U19