Preußen Münster U19 1–0 Bonner SC U19

Preußen Münster U19

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Bonner SC U19

D. Krevsun 13'

10/30/2022

U19 Bundesliga · West - 7Preußen-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Preußen Münster U1961%

×Draw19%

Bonner SC U1920%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Preußen Münster U19Expected goals in this matchBonner SC U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.37

1.29

Preußen Münster U19

2.37

Bonner SC U19

1.29

Preußen Münster U19 creates 84% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 10 away

1.63

creates per match

0.80

1.78

allows per match

3.10

creates per match

Preußen Münster U19

1.63

Bonner SC U19

0.80

allows per match

Preußen Münster U19

1.78

Bonner SC U19

3.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Preußen Münster U19+0.00on par

Bonner SC U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Preußen Münster U19 ↓

Bonner SC U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Preußen Münster U19 or draw

80%

Preußen Münster U19 or Bonner SC U19

81%

Draw or Bonner SC U19

39%

Winning margin

Preußen Münster U19 wins by 2+

39%

Bonner SC U19 wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Preußen Münster U19 1+ goals

91%

Preußen Münster U19 2+ goals

68%

Preußen Münster U19 3+ goals

42%

Bonner SC U19 1+ goals

72%

Bonner SC U19 2+ goals

37%

Bonner SC U19 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Preußen Münster U19 (draw refunded)

75%

Bonner SC U19 (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Preußen Münster U19 at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.78 · 60 matches

Bonner SC U19 away — creates 0.80, concedes 3.10 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Preußen Münster U19 attack 1.63 + Bonner SC U19 defence 3.10 → ÷2 → 2.37

Bonner SC U19 attack 0.80 + Preußen Münster U19 defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Preußen Münster U19 scores more

61%

level

19%

Bonner SC U19 scores more

20%

Preußen Münster U19 at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Preußen Münster U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

D. Krevsun

46'

A. Hoti← L. Öztürk

46'

D. Sinanoglu← N. Lee

46'

M. Ojesanmi← N. Tomson

64'

D. Tchadjobo← P. Pinto

64'

S. Becker← B. Fallbrock

73'

E. Ünal← J. Osawe

73'

M. Gültekin← B. Boboy

80'

M. Bluhm← T. Wieschebrock

82'

K. Katkó← S. Sarrafyar

90+1'

A. Papenfort← T. Hausotter

Preußen

Bonner

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: T. Harink

46'▲A. Hoti←▼L. Öztürk

64'▲D. Tchadjobo←▼P. Pinto

64'▲S. Becker←▼B. Fallbrock

82'▲K. Katkó←▼S. Sarrafyar

90+1'▲A. Papenfort←▼T. Hausotter

Preußen Münster U19 substitutes

HotiTchadjoboBeckerKatkóPapenfortPehlivanAlter

Manager: M. Ndjeng

46'▲D. Sinanoglu←▼N. Lee

46'▲M. Ojesanmi←▼N. Tomson

73'▲E. Ünal←▼J. Osawe

73'▲M. Gültekin←▼B. Boboy

80'▲M. Bluhm←▼T. Wieschebrock

Bonner SC U19 substitutes

SinanogluOjesanmiÜnalGültekinBluhmKalayciReuschenbach