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Preußen Münster II vs Victoria Clarholz — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

Preußen Münster II
Preußen Münster II
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Victoria Clarholz
Victoria Clarholz
4/6/2025Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 29LVM-Youngstars-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 89+ matches

Preußen Münster II54%
×Draw21%
Victoria Clarholz25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Preußen Münster II
2.12
Victoria Clarholz
1.41

Preußen Münster II creates 50% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 89 away

creates per match

Preußen Münster II
2.44
Victoria Clarholz
1.28

allows per match

Preußen Münster II
1.54
Victoria Clarholz
1.79

finishing

Preußen Münster II+0.00on par
Victoria Clarholz+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Preußen Münster II ↓

Victoria Clarholz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Preußen Münster II or draw
75%
Preußen Münster II or Victoria Clarholz
79%
Draw or Victoria Clarholz
46%

Winning margin

Preußen Münster II wins by 2+
32%
Victoria Clarholz wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Preußen Münster II 1+ goals
88%
Preußen Münster II 2+ goals
62%
Preußen Münster II 3+ goals
35%
Victoria Clarholz 1+ goals
76%
Victoria Clarholz 2+ goals
41%
Victoria Clarholz 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Preußen Münster II (draw refunded)
68%
Victoria Clarholz (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Preußen Münster II at home — creates 2.44, concedes 1.54 · 90 matches

Victoria Clarholz away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.79 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Preußen Münster II attack 2.44 + Victoria Clarholz defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 2.12

Victoria Clarholz attack 1.28 + Preußen Münster II defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Preußen Münster II scores more
54%
level
21%
Victoria Clarholz scores more
25%

Preußen Münster II at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Preußen Münster II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Preußen Münster II vs Victoria Clarholz

Victoria Clarholz beat Preußen Münster II 3-0 in Oberliga - Westfalen on April 6, 2025.

The match was played at LVM-Youngstars-Arena in Münster.