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Preußen Münster II vs Sportfreunde Lotte — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

Preußen Münster II
Preußen Münster II
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Sportfreunde Lotte
Sportfreunde Lotte
11/10/2023Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 14Sportpark Berg Fidel Platz 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Preußen Münster II41%
×Draw22%
Sportfreunde Lotte37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Preußen Münster II
1.88
Sportfreunde Lotte
1.77

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 90 home / 34 away

creates per match

Preußen Münster II
2.44
Sportfreunde Lotte
2.00

allows per match

Preußen Münster II
1.54
Sportfreunde Lotte
1.32

finishing

Preußen Münster II+0.00on par
Sportfreunde Lotte+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Preußen Münster II ↓

Sportfreunde Lotte →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Preußen Münster II or draw
63%
Preußen Münster II or Sportfreunde Lotte
78%
Draw or Sportfreunde Lotte
59%

Winning margin

Preußen Münster II wins by 2+
22%
Sportfreunde Lotte wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Preußen Münster II 1+ goals
85%
Preußen Münster II 2+ goals
56%
Preußen Münster II 3+ goals
29%
Sportfreunde Lotte 1+ goals
83%
Sportfreunde Lotte 2+ goals
53%
Sportfreunde Lotte 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Preußen Münster II (draw refunded)
53%
Sportfreunde Lotte (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Preußen Münster II at home — creates 2.44, concedes 1.54 · 90 matches

Sportfreunde Lotte away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.32 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Preußen Münster II attack 2.44 + Sportfreunde Lotte defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.88

Sportfreunde Lotte attack 2.00 + Preußen Münster II defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Preußen Münster II scores more
41%
level
22%
Sportfreunde Lotte scores more
37%

Preußen Münster II at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Preußen Münster II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Preußen Münster II vs Sportfreunde Lotte

Sportfreunde Lotte beat Preußen Münster II 2-1 in Oberliga - Westfalen on November 10, 2023.

The match was played at Sportpark Berg Fidel Platz 2 in Münster.