Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Preußen Münster II vs Kaan-Marienborn — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

Preußen Münster II
Preußen Münster II
CANC
14:00
Kaan-Marienborn
Kaan-Marienborn
2/28/2021Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 22Jugendstadion am Preußenstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Preußen Münster II34%
×Draw21%
Kaan-Marienborn45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Preußen Münster II
1.78
Kaan-Marienborn
2.06

Kaan-Marienborn creates 16% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 17 away

creates per match

Preußen Münster II
2.44
Kaan-Marienborn
2.59

allows per match

Preußen Münster II
1.54
Kaan-Marienborn
1.12

finishing

Preußen Münster II+0.00on par
Kaan-Marienborn+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Preußen Münster II ↓

Kaan-Marienborn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Preußen Münster II or draw
55%
Preußen Münster II or Kaan-Marienborn
79%
Draw or Kaan-Marienborn
66%

Winning margin

Preußen Münster II wins by 2+
17%
Kaan-Marienborn wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Preußen Münster II 1+ goals
83%
Preußen Münster II 2+ goals
53%
Preußen Münster II 3+ goals
26%
Kaan-Marienborn 1+ goals
87%
Kaan-Marienborn 2+ goals
61%
Kaan-Marienborn 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Preußen Münster II (draw refunded)
43%
Kaan-Marienborn (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Preußen Münster II at home — creates 2.44, concedes 1.54 · 90 matches

Kaan-Marienborn away — creates 2.59, concedes 1.12 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Preußen Münster II attack 2.44 + Kaan-Marienborn defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.78

Kaan-Marienborn attack 2.59 + Preußen Münster II defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 2.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Preußen Münster II scores more
34%
level
21%
Kaan-Marienborn scores more
45%

Kaan-Marienborn at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Kaan-Marienborn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preußen Münster II vs Kaan-Marienborn — Match Preview

Preußen Münster II face Kaan-Marienborn on February 28, 2021 in this Oberliga - Westfalen fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Preußen Münster II host Kaan-Marienborn at Jugendstadion am Preußenstadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.