Preußen Münster II 0–3 Holzwickeder SC

Preußen Münster II

FT

0 – 3

Holzwickeder SC

11/20/2021

Oberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 13Jugendstadion am Preußenstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Preußen Münster II48%

×Draw21%

Holzwickeder SC31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Preußen Münster IIExpected goals in this matchHolzwickeder SC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.05

1.63

Preußen Münster II

2.05

Holzwickeder SC

1.63

Preußen Münster II creates 26% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 18 away

2.44

creates per match

1.72

1.54

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Preußen Münster II

2.44

Holzwickeder SC

1.72

allows per match

Preußen Münster II

1.54

Holzwickeder SC

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Preußen Münster II+0.00on par

Holzwickeder SC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Preußen Münster II ↓

Holzwickeder SC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Preußen Münster II or draw

69%

Preußen Münster II or Holzwickeder SC

79%

Draw or Holzwickeder SC

52%

Winning margin

Preußen Münster II wins by 2+

27%

Holzwickeder SC wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Preußen Münster II 1+ goals

87%

Preußen Münster II 2+ goals

61%

Preußen Münster II 3+ goals

33%

Holzwickeder SC 1+ goals

80%

Holzwickeder SC 2+ goals

48%

Holzwickeder SC 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Preußen Münster II (draw refunded)

60%

Holzwickeder SC (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Preußen Münster II at home — creates 2.44, concedes 1.54 · 90 matches

Holzwickeder SC away — creates 1.72, concedes 1.67 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Preußen Münster II attack 2.44 + Holzwickeder SC defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.05

Holzwickeder SC attack 1.72 + Preußen Münster II defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Preußen Münster II scores more

48%

level

21%

Holzwickeder SC scores more

31%

Preußen Münster II at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Preußen Münster II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff