Preston 2–2 Wycombe: Result & Stats | Championship

Preston

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Wycombe

J. McCarthy 87' (OG)

T. Barkhuizen 14'

S. Kashket 75'

G. McCleary 48'

12/5/2020

Championship · Round 16Deepdale

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Preston48%

×Draw25%

Wycombe27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PrestonExpected goals in this matchWycombe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.09

Preston

1.54

Wycombe

1.09

Preston creates 41% more chances

Season form · 181 home / 23 away

1.29

creates per match

0.96

1.22

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Preston

1.29

Wycombe

0.96

allows per match

Preston

1.22

Wycombe

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Preston+0.00on par

Wycombe+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Preston ↓

Wycombe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Preston or draw

73%

Preston or Wycombe

75%

Draw or Wycombe

52%

Winning margin

Preston wins by 2+

24%

Wycombe wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Preston 1+ goals

79%

Preston 2+ goals

45%

Preston 3+ goals

20%

Wycombe 1+ goals

66%

Wycombe 2+ goals

30%

Wycombe 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Preston (draw refunded)

64%

Wycombe (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Preston at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.22 · 181 matches

Wycombe away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.78 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Preston attack 1.29 + Wycombe defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.54

Wycombe attack 0.96 + Preston defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Preston scores more

48%

level

25%

Wycombe scores more

27%

Preston at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Preston will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

29

T. Barkhuizen

Preston · M

7.7

Match Events

14'

T. Barkhuizen

26'

Josh Knight

33'

J. Harrop← B. Pearson

48'

G. McCleary↳ D. Horgan

61'

E. Riis← S. Maguire

67'

D. Wheeler← A. Stewart

73'

B. Potts← D. Johnson

73'

J. Stockley← J. Rafferty

75'

S. Kashket

79'

N. Freeman← D. Horgan

79'

M. Bloomfield← F. Onyedinma

83'

Jack Grimmer

84'

A. Samuel← A. Akinfenwa

86'

Scott Kashket

87'

J. McCarthyOwn goal

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PrestonWycombe

Overview

59%Possession41%

19Total Shots17

8Corners6

17Fouls15

Shots

19Total Shots17

3On Target4

8Off Target10

8Blocked3

14Inside Box13

5Outside Box4

Passing

59%Possession41%

359Total Passes231

236Accurate Passes123

66%Pass Accuracy53%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

17Fouls15

0Yellow Cards3

2Offsides1