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Preston vs Sheffield Utd — Championship 2025

Preston
Preston
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Sheffield Utd
Sheffield Utd
G. Hamer 55'
O. Arblaster 12'
8/9/2024ChampionshipChampionship · Round 1Deepdale

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

Preston30%
×Draw27%
Sheffield Utd43%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Preston
1.07
Sheffield Utd
1.33

Sheffield Utd creates 24% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 14 away

creates per match

Preston
1.02
Sheffield Utd
1.38

allows per match

Preston
1.28
Sheffield Utd
1.13

finishing

Preston+0.16scores more
Sheffield Utd+0.05on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Preston ↓

Sheffield Utd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Preston or draw
57%
Preston or Sheffield Utd
73%
Draw or Sheffield Utd
70%

Winning margin

Preston wins by 2+
12%
Sheffield Utd wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Preston 1+ goals
66%
Preston 2+ goals
29%
Preston 3+ goals
9%
Sheffield Utd 1+ goals
74%
Sheffield Utd 2+ goals
38%
Sheffield Utd 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Preston (draw refunded)
41%
Sheffield Utd (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Preston at home — creates 1.02, concedes 1.28 · 39 matches

Sheffield Utd away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.13 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Preston attack 1.02 + Sheffield Utd defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.07

Sheffield Utd attack 1.38 + Preston defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Preston scores more
30%
level
27%
Sheffield Utd scores more
43%

Sheffield Utd at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Sheffield Utd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21
Vinicius SouzaSheffield UtdSheffield Utd · M
8.2

Match Events

12'
O. Arblaster↳ A. Brooks
55'
G. Hamer
65'
K. Kesler-Hayden← S. Greenwood
65'
M. Osmajić← W. Keane
72'
M. Frøkjær-Jensen← S. Þórðarson
72'
F. Seriki← A. Gilchrist
73'
A. Ben Slimane← G. Hamer
79'
R. Brewster← A. Brooks
80'
Liam Lindsay
87'
K. Best← R. Brady
90'
S. Peck← C. OHare

Possession

46%Preston

Shots

12Preston

Pass accuracy

49%Preston

Statistics

PrestonSheffield
Overview
46%Possession54%
12Total Shots11
0.64Expected Goals (xG)1.02
3Corners6
11Fouls14
Shots
12Total Shots11
2On Target3
6Off Target7
4Blocked1
8Inside Box4
4Outside Box7
Passing
46%Possession54%
351Total Passes424
278Accurate Passes345
79%Pass Accuracy81%
Goalkeeping
1Saves2
0.66Goals Prevented0.66
Discipline
11Fouls14
1Yellow Cards0
2Offsides3

Match Recap: Preston vs Sheffield Utd

Sheffield Utd beat Preston 2-0 in Championship on August 9, 2024.

Goals: O. Arblaster (12'), G. Hamer (55').

Sheffield Utd controlled possession (54%) and registered 11 shots to 12.

The match was played at Deepdale in Preston.