Preston 2–3 Reading: Result & Stats | Championship

Preston

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Reading

C. Robinson 76'

D. Johnson 31'

L. Bacuna 81'

Tiago Ilori 52'

S. Baldock 23'

9/15/2018

Championship · Round 7Deepdale Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 112+ matches

Preston44%

×Draw27%

Reading30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PrestonExpected goals in this matchReading

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.10

Preston

1.39

Reading

1.10

Preston creates 26% more chances

Season form · 181 home / 112 away

1.29

creates per match

0.99

1.22

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Preston

1.29

Reading

0.99

allows per match

Preston

1.22

Reading

1.49

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Preston+0.00on par

Reading+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Preston ↓

Reading →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Preston or draw

70%

Preston or Reading

73%

Draw or Reading

56%

Winning margin

Preston wins by 2+

21%

Reading wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Preston 1+ goals

75%

Preston 2+ goals

40%

Preston 3+ goals

16%

Reading 1+ goals

67%

Reading 2+ goals

30%

Reading 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Preston (draw refunded)

59%

Reading (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Preston at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.22 · 181 matches

Reading away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.49 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Preston attack 1.29 + Reading defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.39

Reading attack 0.99 + Preston defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Preston scores more

44%

level

27%

Reading scores more

30%

Preston at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Preston will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

C. Robinson

Preston · M

8.1

Match Events

23'

S. Baldock↳ J. Swift

31'

D. Johnson

43'

Andy Yiadom

52'

Tiago Ilori↳ S. Aluko

56'

J. Harrop← D. Fisher

57'

L. Nmecha← P. Gallagher

75'

J. Böðvarsson← Y. Meïté

76'

C. Robinson↳ J. Earl

79'

J. Sims← S. Aluko

80'

G. Burke← L. Moult

81'

L. Bacuna↳ J. Sims

90'

Joshua Earl

90+3'

A. Rinomhota← L. Kelly

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PrestonReading

Overview

57%Possession43%

23Total Shots9

9Corners2

11Fouls9

Shots

23Total Shots9

10On Target5

8Off Target3

5Blocked1

15Inside Box6

8Outside Box3

Passing

57%Possession43%

465Total Passes354

349Accurate Passes236

75%Pass Accuracy67%

Goalkeeping

2Saves8

Discipline

11Fouls9

1Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0

3Offsides3