Preston 1–3 Oxford United: Result & Stats

Preston

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Oxford United

M. Osmajic 12'

C. Brown 61'

W. Lankshear 55'

M. Helik 5'

3/6/2026

Championship · Round 36Deepdale

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 34+ matches

Preston44%

×Draw27%

Oxford United29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PrestonExpected goals in this matchOxford United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.08

Preston

1.40

Oxford United

1.08

Preston creates 30% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 34 away

1.15

creates per match

0.97

1.20

allows per match

1.66

creates per match

Preston

1.15

Oxford United

0.97

allows per match

Preston

1.20

Oxford United

1.66

+0.04on par

finishing

+0.09on par

finishing

Preston+0.04on par

Oxford United+0.09on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Preston ↓

Oxford United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Preston or draw

71%

Preston or Oxford United

73%

Draw or Oxford United

56%

Winning margin

Preston wins by 2+

21%

Oxford United wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Preston 1+ goals

75%

Preston 2+ goals

41%

Preston 3+ goals

17%

Oxford United 1+ goals

66%

Oxford United 2+ goals

29%

Oxford United 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Preston (draw refunded)

60%

Oxford United (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Preston at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.20 · 58 matches

Oxford United away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.66 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Preston attack 1.15 + Oxford United defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.40

Oxford United attack 0.97 + Preston defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Preston scores more

44%

level

27%

Oxford United scores more

29%

Preston at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Preston will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

M. Helik

Oxford United · D

8.2

Match Events

5'

M. Helik↳ C. Brannagan

12'

M. Osmajic↳ B. Whiteman

22'

Ciaron Brown

45+4'

D. Jebbison← C. Lang

46'

B. Spencer← J. Currie

55'

W. Lankshear

61'

C. Brown↳ M. Helik

62'

A. Vukcevic← L. Gibson

71'

N. Prelec← W. Lankshear

80'

W. Vaulks← Y. E. Konak

80'

C. Makosso← S. Mills

82'

T. Small← J. Thompson

87'

M. Harris← J. Donley

90+4'

Jordan Storey

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PrestonOxford

Overview

70%Possession30%

13Total Shots15

0.93Expected Goals (xG)1.74

9Corners5

9Fouls10

Shots

13Total Shots15

4On Target7

5Off Target6

4Blocked2

9Inside Box9

4Outside Box6

Passing

70%Possession30%

483Total Passes209

398Accurate Passes137

82%Pass Accuracy66%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

1.03Goals Prevented1.03

Discipline

9Fouls10

1Yellow Cards1

3Offsides0