Preston 0–4 Norwich: Result & Stats | Championship

Preston

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 3

Norwich

T. Pukki 69', 13'

K. Dowell 28', 16'

1/14/2023

Championship · Round 27Deepdale

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 60+ matches

Preston39%

×Draw27%

Norwich34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PrestonExpected goals in this matchNorwich

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

1.20

Preston

1.30

Norwich

1.20

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 61 home / 60 away

1.14

creates per match

1.22

1.18

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Preston

1.14

Norwich

1.22

allows per match

Preston

1.18

Norwich

1.47

+0.06on par

finishing

+0.11scores more than expected

finishing

Preston+0.06on par

Norwich+0.11scores more

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Preston ↓

Norwich →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Preston or draw

66%

Preston or Norwich

73%

Draw or Norwich

61%

Winning margin

Preston wins by 2+

17%

Norwich wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Preston 1+ goals

73%

Preston 2+ goals

37%

Preston 3+ goals

14%

Norwich 1+ goals

70%

Norwich 2+ goals

34%

Norwich 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Preston (draw refunded)

53%

Norwich (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Preston at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.18 · 61 matches

Norwich away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.47 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Preston attack 1.14 + Norwich defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.30

Norwich attack 1.22 + Preston defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Preston scores more

39%

level

27%

Norwich scores more

34%

Preston at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Preston will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

K. Dowell

Norwich · F

8.9

Match Events

13'

T. Pukki↳ Gabriel Sara

16'

K. Dowell↳ M. Aarons

28'

K. Dowell↳ T. Pukki

30'

Álvaro Fernández← A. McCann

30'

L. Delap← B. Woodburn

44'

55'

59'

61'

69'

72'

T. Parrott← D. Johnson

72'

L. Gibbs← Gabriel Sara

72'

A. Idah← T. Pukki

72'

D. Sinani← K. Dowell

73'

R. Brady← Bambo Diaby

74'

Robbie Brady

75'

Liam Lindsay

78'

M. Núñez← O. Hernández

79'

Ryan Ledson

79'

J. Sørensen← M. Aarons

89'

Adam Idah

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PrestonNorwich

Overview

37%Possession63%

9Total Shots22

4Corners7

17Fouls11

Shots

9Total Shots22

2On Target8

2Off Target9

5Blocked5

7Inside Box16

2Outside Box6

Passing

37%Possession63%

263Total Passes470

149Accurate Passes358

57%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

17Fouls11

4Yellow Cards4

0Offsides1