Norwich 2–0 Preston: Result & Stats | Championship

Norwich

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Preston

K. McLean 39'

A. Ahmed 17'

3/14/2026

Championship · Round 38Carrow Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 55+ matches

Norwich47%

×Draw25%

Preston28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NorwichExpected goals in this matchPreston

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.15

Norwich

1.58

Preston

1.15

Norwich creates 37% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 55 away

1.52

creates per match

1.01

1.29

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Norwich

1.52

Preston

1.01

allows per match

Norwich

1.29

Preston

1.64

+0.19scores more than expected

finishing

-0.01on par

finishing

Norwich+0.19scores more

Preston-0.01on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Norwich ↓

Preston →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Norwich or draw

72%

Norwich or Preston

75%

Draw or Preston

53%

Winning margin

Norwich wins by 2+

24%

Preston wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Norwich 1+ goals

79%

Norwich 2+ goals

47%

Norwich 3+ goals

21%

Preston 1+ goals

68%

Preston 2+ goals

32%

Preston 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Norwich (draw refunded)

63%

Preston (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Norwich at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.29 · 56 matches

Preston away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.64 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Norwich attack 1.52 + Preston defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.58

Preston attack 1.01 + Norwich defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Norwich scores more

47%

level

25%

Preston scores more

28%

Norwich at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Norwich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

K. McLean

Norwich · M

8.5

Match Events

13'

Anis Ben Slimane

17'

A. Ahmed

39'

K. McLean

60'

K. Fisher← B. Chrisene

61'

P. Maghoma← A. Slimane

61'

S. Field← P. Mattsson

61'

E. Mundle Smith← M. Kvistgaarden

64'

B. Potts← O. Offiah

64'

A. Devine← A. Moran

65'

P. Valentin← J. Thompson

81'

R. Brady← T. Small

81'

M. Smith← B. Whiteman

87'

Brad Potts

88'

A. Forson← A. Ahmed

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NorwichPreston

Overview

63%Possession37%

9Total Shots15

1.05Expected Goals (xG)2.32

5Corners3

9Fouls14

Shots

9Total Shots15

4On Target4

4Off Target5

1Blocked6

4Inside Box13

5Outside Box2

Passing

63%Possession37%

460Total Passes274

357Accurate Passes184

78%Pass Accuracy67%

Goalkeeping

4Saves1

-0.06Goals Prevented-0.06

Discipline

9Fouls14

1Yellow Cards1

0Offsides2

Championship: Norwich 2–0 Preston

Norwich beat Preston 2-0 in Championship on March 14, 2026.

Goals: A. Ahmed (17'), K. McLean (39').

Norwich controlled possession (63%) and registered 9 shots to 15.

The match was played at Carrow Road in Norwich.

Norwich vs Preston — Championship 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Championship: Norwich 2–0 Preston