Preston 1–1 Norwich: Result & Stats | Championship

Preston

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Norwich

B. Potts 90+5'

E. Buendía 17'

4/2/2021

Championship · Round 39Deepdale

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 60+ matches

Preston39%

×Draw27%

Norwich34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PrestonExpected goals in this matchNorwich

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

1.19

Preston

1.30

Norwich

1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 62 home / 60 away

1.14

creates per match

1.22

1.17

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Preston

1.14

Norwich

1.22

allows per match

Preston

1.17

Norwich

1.47

+0.07on par

finishing

+0.11scores more than expected

finishing

Preston+0.07on par

Norwich+0.11scores more

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Preston ↓

Norwich →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Preston or draw

66%

Preston or Norwich

73%

Draw or Norwich

61%

Winning margin

Preston wins by 2+

18%

Norwich wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Preston 1+ goals

73%

Preston 2+ goals

37%

Preston 3+ goals

14%

Norwich 1+ goals

70%

Norwich 2+ goals

33%

Norwich 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Preston (draw refunded)

54%

Norwich (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Preston at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.17 · 62 matches

Norwich away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.47 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Preston attack 1.14 + Norwich defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.30

Norwich attack 1.22 + Preston defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Preston scores more

39%

level

27%

Norwich scores more

34%

Preston at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Preston will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

E. Buendía

Norwich · M

8.5

Match Events

9'

Ryan Ledson

17'

E. Buendía↳ K. McLean

57'

J. Molumby← S. Sinclair

64'

B. Potts← D. Johnson

71'

B. Whiteman← C. Evans

71'

A. Gordon← E. Riis

71'

S. Maguire← T. Barkhuizen

72'

M. Stiepermann← K. Dowell

82'

O. Skipp← E. Buendía

89'

O. Hernández← T. Cantwell

89'

J. Hugill← T. Pukki

90'

Onel Hernández

90+5'

B. Potts↳ R. Ledson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PrestonNorwich

Overview

34%Possession66%

11Total Shots18

4Corners2

17Fouls10

Shots

11Total Shots18

3On Target5

5Off Target6

3Blocked7

7Inside Box8

4Outside Box10

Passing

34%Possession66%

281Total Passes544

165Accurate Passes418

59%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

17Fouls10

1Yellow Cards1

1Offsides3