Preston 3–2 Ipswich: Result & Stats | Championship

Preston

FT

3 – 2

HT: 3 – 0

Ipswich

W. Keane 39', 5'

G. Edmundson 8' (OG)

K. Moore 87', 75'

2/3/2024

Championship · Round 30Deepdale

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Preston22%

×Draw25%

Ipswich53%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PrestonExpected goals in this matchIpswich

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.94

1.63

Preston

0.94

Ipswich

1.63

Ipswich creates 73% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 6 away

0.90

creates per match

1.95

1.30

allows per match

0.98

creates per match

Preston

0.90

Ipswich

1.95

allows per match

Preston

1.30

Ipswich

0.98

+0.28scores more than expected

finishing

-0.12scores less than expected

finishing

Preston+0.28scores more

Ipswich-0.12scores less

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Preston ↓

Ipswich →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–112%

0–210%

0–36%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–210%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Preston or draw

47%

Preston or Ipswich

75%

Draw or Ipswich

78%

Winning margin

Preston wins by 2+

7%

Ipswich wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

Preston 1+ goals

61%

Preston 2+ goals

24%

Preston 3+ goals

7%

Ipswich 1+ goals

80%

Ipswich 2+ goals

48%

Ipswich 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Preston (draw refunded)

29%

Ipswich (draw refunded)

71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Preston at home — creates 0.90, concedes 1.30 · 17 matches

Ipswich away — creates 1.95, concedes 0.98 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Preston attack 0.90 + Ipswich defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.94

Ipswich attack 1.95 + Preston defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Preston scores more

22%

level

25%

Ipswich scores more

53%

Ipswich at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Ipswich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

24

K. Moore

Ipswich · F

8.9

Match Events

5'

W. Keane↳ B. Whiteman

8'

G. EdmundsonOwn goal

39'

W. Keane

46'

K. Moore← K. Jackson

67'

N. Broadhead← J. Sarmiento

68'

O. Hutchinson← C. Chaplin

71'

A. McCann← M. Frøkjær-Jensen

71'

M. Osmajić← E. Riis

75'

K. Moore↳ L. Davis

78'

R. Brady← L. Millar

81'

Ali Al Hamadi← W. Burns

81'

M. Harness← M. Luongo

87'

K. Moore

90+5'

B. Woodburn← W. Keane

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PrestonIpswich

Overview

34%Possession66%

10Total Shots25

0.69Expected Goals (xG)2.76

6Corners3

13Fouls8

Shots

10Total Shots25

3On Target9

2Off Target9

5Blocked7

7Inside Box17

3Outside Box8

Passing

34%Possession66%

288Total Passes568

179Accurate Passes432

62%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

7Saves1

Discipline

13Fouls8

1Offsides0