Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Preston vs Ipswich — Championship 2018

Preston
Preston
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Ipswich
Ipswich
L. Nmecha 75', 56'
C. Robinson 22', 6'
4/19/2019ChampionshipChampionship · Round 43Deepdale Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 35+ matches

Preston33%
×Draw27%
Ipswich40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Preston
1.16
Ipswich
1.30

Ipswich creates 12% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 35 away

creates per match

Preston
1.14
Ipswich
1.43

allows per match

Preston
1.17
Ipswich
1.18

finishing

Preston+0.07on par
Ipswich+0.14scores more

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Preston ↓

Ipswich →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Preston or draw
60%
Preston or Ipswich
73%
Draw or Ipswich
67%

Winning margin

Preston wins by 2+
14%
Ipswich wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Preston 1+ goals
69%
Preston 2+ goals
32%
Preston 3+ goals
11%
Ipswich 1+ goals
73%
Ipswich 2+ goals
37%
Ipswich 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Preston (draw refunded)
45%
Ipswich (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Preston at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.17 · 62 matches

Ipswich away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.18 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Preston attack 1.14 + Ipswich defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.16

Ipswich attack 1.43 + Preston defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Preston scores more
33%
level
27%
Ipswich scores more
40%

Ipswich at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Ipswich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7
C. RobinsonPrestonPreston · M
9.4

Match Events

6'
C. Robinson↳ R. Ledson
22'
C. Robinson
46'
J. Bree← J. Emmanuel
56'
L. Nmecha
59'
W. Keane← I. El Mizouni
70'
L. Moult← P. Gallagher
74'
J. Ginnelly← S. Maguire
75'
L. Nmecha↳ C. Robinson
76'
J. Stockley← C. Robinson
76'
T. Chalobah← T. Bishop
78'
Myles Kenlock

Possession

41%Preston

Shots

17Preston

Pass accuracy

48%Preston

Statistics

PrestonIpswich
Overview
41%Possession59%
17Total Shots18
3Corners4
8Fouls13
Shots
17Total Shots18
10On Target5
4Off Target9
3Blocked4
13Inside Box8
4Outside Box10
Passing
41%Possession59%
357Total Passes515
261Accurate Passes412
73%Pass Accuracy80%
Goalkeeping
5Saves6
Discipline
8Fouls13
0Yellow Cards1
4Offsides2

Championship: Preston 4–0 Ipswich

Preston beat Ipswich 4-0 in Championship on April 19, 2019.

Goals: C. Robinson (6', 22'), L. Nmecha (56', 75').

Ipswich controlled possession (59%) and registered 18 shots to 17.

The match was played at Deepdale Stadium in Preston.