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Preston vs Cardiff — Championship 2025

Preston
Preston
Preview
11:30
Cardiff
Cardiff
5/1/2027ChampionshipChampionship · Round 46Deepdale
51%
Preston
model favours
51%26%24%

Preston score first in only 17% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
54%
under 2.5 goals
49%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Preston51%
×Draw26%
Cardiff24%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Preston
1.54
Cardiff
0.97

Preston creates 59% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 25 away

creates per match

Preston
1.16
Cardiff
0.80

allows per match

Preston
1.14
Cardiff
1.92

finishing

Preston+0.00on par
Cardiff+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Preston ↓

Cardiff →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Preston or draw
76%
Preston or Cardiff
74%
Draw or Cardiff
49%

Winning margin

Preston wins by 2+
26%
Cardiff wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Preston 1+ goals
79%
Preston 2+ goals
45%
Preston 3+ goals
20%
Cardiff 1+ goals
62%
Cardiff 2+ goals
25%
Cardiff 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Preston (draw refunded)
68%
Cardiff (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Preston at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.14 · 37 matches

Cardiff away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.92 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Preston attack 1.16 + Cardiff defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.54

Cardiff attack 0.80 + Preston defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Preston scores more
51%
level
26%
Cardiff scores more
24%

Preston at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Preston will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in 76% of Preston’s matches
  • Preston and Cardiff have never met before

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Preston
WLWL
Cardiff
WLLWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Preston host Cardiff

May 1, 2027: Preston take on Cardiff in Championship. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Preston host Cardiff at Deepdale.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.