Cardiff 0–2 Preston: Result & Stats | Championship

Cardiff

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Preston

M. Osmajić 90+3'

C. Chambers 48' (OG)

12/11/2024

Championship · Round 20Cardiff City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Cardiff44%

×Draw26%

Preston30%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CardiffExpected goals in this matchPreston

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.13

Cardiff

1.42

Preston

1.13

Cardiff creates 26% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 14 away

1.22

creates per match

1.17

1.08

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Cardiff

1.22

Preston

1.17

allows per match

Cardiff

1.08

Preston

1.62

-0.47scores less than expected

finishing

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

Cardiff-0.47scores less

Preston-0.10scores less

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cardiff ↓

Preston →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Cardiff or draw

70%

Cardiff or Preston

74%

Draw or Preston

56%

Winning margin

Cardiff wins by 2+

21%

Preston wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Cardiff 1+ goals

76%

Cardiff 2+ goals

41%

Cardiff 3+ goals

17%

Preston 1+ goals

68%

Preston 2+ goals

31%

Preston 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Cardiff (draw refunded)

59%

Preston (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cardiff at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.08 · 8 matches

Preston away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.62 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cardiff attack 1.22 + Preston defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.42

Preston attack 1.17 + Cardiff defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Cardiff scores more

44%

level

26%

Preston scores more

30%

Cardiff at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Cardiff will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14

J. Storey

Preston · D

8.3

Match Events

33'

Perry Ng

33'

Mads Frøkjær-Jensen

37'

Sam Greenwood

48'

C. ChambersOwn goal

57'

A. El Ghazi← J. Bagan

57'

J. Ralls← A. Rinomhota

57'

C. Willock← Y. Meïté

65'

B. Potts← J. Bowler

65'

B. Whiteman← M. Frøkjær-Jensen

68'

M. Reindorf← C. Robinson

74'

Alistair McCann

76'

Kaine Kesler-Hayden

79'

D. Holmes← S. Þórðarson

79'

M. Osmajić← E. Riis

79'

R. Brady← K. Kesler-Hayden

81'

Joe Ralls

90+4'

Milutin Osmajić

90+3'

M. Osmajić

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CardiffPreston

Overview

59%Possession41%

13Total Shots14

0.60Expected Goals (xG)1.06

7Corners2

11Fouls16

Shots

13Total Shots14

4On Target4

6Off Target8

3Blocked2

8Inside Box7

5Outside Box7

Passing

59%Possession41%

517Total Passes370

428Accurate Passes279

83%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

0.07Goals Prevented0.07

Discipline

11Fouls16

2Yellow Cards5

2Offsides0

Championship: Cardiff 0–2 Preston

Preston beat Cardiff 2-0 in Championship on December 11, 2024.

Goals: C. Chambers (48' o.g.), M. Osmajić (90+3').

Cardiff controlled possession (59%) and registered 13 shots to 14.

The match was played at Cardiff City Stadium in Caerdydd.

Cardiff vs Preston — Championship 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Championship: Cardiff 0–2 Preston